The Customer Winback Flow: How to Re-Activate Customers for 5x Less Than Acquiring New Ones

Acquiring a new customer costs 5-7x more than retaining an existing one. That's not a marketing cliché. It's math.

Every customer who purchased from your Shopify store has already done the hardest part: they trusted you with their money. They found your product, evaluated it, entered their payment details, and completed the transaction. The acquisition cost is already paid.

When that customer goes quiet — no purchases, no site visits, no email engagement for 60-90+ days — they haven't necessarily left forever. They've just drifted. Life got busy. They found other things to spend money on. Your brand slipped out of their awareness.

The winback flow is designed to pull them back before they're gone for good.

Winback vs. Sunset: Know the Difference

These flows serve different purposes and target different people:

Winback Flow targets lapsed customers — people who previously purchased but haven't bought again or engaged recently. The goal is to drive a repeat purchase.

Sunset Flow targets unengaged subscribers — people who haven't opened or clicked emails regardless of whether they ever purchased. The goal is re-engagement or clean suppression.

A subscriber can be in winback territory without being in sunset territory (they still open emails but haven't bought again), and vice versa. The flows should run independently with appropriate exclusion logic so subscribers don't receive both simultaneously.

When to Trigger

The winback trigger is based on purchase recency, not email engagement.

Standard trigger: Customer placed an order 90+ days ago AND has not placed another order since.

For brands with shorter purchase cycles (consumables, supplements, food), the trigger might be 45-60 days. For brands with longer cycles (furniture, high-ticket items), 120-180 days is more appropriate.

The right number depends on your product's natural repurchase cycle. If you sell coffee beans and most repeat buyers reorder within 30 days, a customer who hasn't reordered at 60 days is clearly lapsing. If you sell blankets, waiting 90-120 days is reasonable.

Klaviyo's predictive analytics can help here. The "Expected Date of Next Order" prediction tells you when each customer is likely to buy again. Triggering the winback flow when someone passes their predicted reorder date adds precision.

The 3-Email Winback Sequence

Email 1: The Reconnection (Day 0)

This email isn't about selling. It's about reminding.

Show them what's new since their last purchase. New products, improvements, bestsellers they haven't seen. The message is: you've been away, and things have happened that we think you'd want to know about.

Include their last purchased product as a reference point. "Since you loved [Product Name], we thought you'd want to see..." This personalization signals that you know them and remember their preferences.

No discount yet. The first email tests whether the customer just needs a nudge. Many lapsed customers will reactivate without an incentive — they just needed to be reminded you exist.

Email 2: The Incentive (Day 5)

If Email 1 didn't convert, the second email introduces an incentive. This is where the economics matter.

For most Shopify brands, a 10-15% discount or free shipping on a winback is profitable because the alternative is losing the customer entirely. The lifetime value of a reactivated customer far exceeds the cost of one discounted order.

Frame the incentive as exclusive: "We'd love to welcome you back. Here's 15% off your next order — just for returning customers." Make it feel personal, not desperate.

Set an expiration on the incentive — 7-10 days. Urgency is honest here because you genuinely want them to act before the offer expires and before they drift further.

Add social proof. Reviews, star ratings, testimonials. A lapsed customer might have forgotten why they liked your brand. Remind them through other customers' words.

Email 3: The Last Chance (Day 10)

Final email. The incentive is expiring. The tone is direct but warm.

"Your 15% off expires in 48 hours." Show the product they previously bought alongside new arrivals or complementary items. Make the CTA button large and unmissable.

This email is also a decision point. If the customer doesn't engage with any of the three emails, they're signaling that they're not coming back through email. They shouldn't receive another winback attempt for at least 90-120 days.

Branching Logic That Improves Results

A flat 3-email sequence works, but branching based on customer data makes it significantly better:

Branch by order count. A customer who ordered once and lapsed needs a different approach than one who ordered five times and lapsed. The repeat buyer has proven loyalty — their winback email should acknowledge the relationship: "We miss you — you've been one of our best customers." The one-time buyer needs more convincing: focus on the product benefits and social proof.

Branch by product category. If you sell multiple product lines, show the customer products in the category they previously purchased from. A customer who bought skincare doesn't need to see home goods in their winback email.

Branch by AOV. High-AOV customers might respond better to exclusive access or a gift with purchase rather than a percentage discount. The incentive should match the customer's value level.

Technical Setup in Klaviyo

Trigger: Use a segment-triggered flow. Create a segment of customers who placed an order more than 90 days ago AND have zero orders in the last 90 days AND are not currently suppressed.

Exclusions:

• Exclude anyone currently in the Sunset Flow
• Exclude anyone who received a winback email in the last 120 days (prevents repeated cycles)
• Exclude anyone who is currently in the Post-Purchase Flow (new orders restart their journey)

Flow filters: Add a check before each email that confirms the subscriber hasn't placed an order since entering the flow. If they purchase after Email 1, they should exit the winback flow and enter the Post-Purchase flow instead.

Measuring Winback Performance

The primary metric is reactivation rate: what percentage of customers who enter the winback flow place an order within 30 days of the first email?

Benchmarks:

• 5-10% reactivation rate is solid for most Shopify brands
• Above 10% means your winback sequence is performing well
• Below 3% means you need to test different approaches (timing, incentive, creative)

Secondary metrics to track:

• Revenue per recipient: how much total revenue does the winback flow generate per person who enters it?
• Time to reactivation: do most conversions happen on Email 1, 2, or 3? If most happen on Email 1, your incentive timing might be right. If most happen on Email 2, consider testing a smaller incentive on Email 1.
• Subsequent retention: of the customers you win back, how many purchase again within 6 months? A winback that produces one more order followed by permanent lapse isn't as valuable as one that restarts a purchasing pattern.

The Revenue Impact

Winback flows typically don't generate the headline revenue numbers that Welcome Series or Abandoned Checkout flows do. But they're uniquely valuable because they recover customers with zero additional acquisition cost.

Every order from a winback flow is pure retention revenue. No ad spend. No CAC. Just the cost of the email and the discount (if offered). For brands spending heavily on paid acquisition, even a modest winback flow can meaningfully improve overall unit economics.

In our client work, winback flows typically contribute 2-5% of total Klaviyo revenue. The number is smaller than other flows, but the margin on that revenue is higher because the customers were already acquired.

The Bottom Line

Not every lapsed customer will come back. But enough of them will to make the winback flow one of the most efficient revenue generators in your Klaviyo account.

Build the flow. Set the trigger based on your product's natural purchase cycle. Lead with a reminder, follow with an incentive, close with urgency. Branch by customer value and product affinity when possible.

The customers are already there. They already bought from you. They just need a reason to come back.